The Latest on China Manufacturing: High Output, High Expectations

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According to the New York Times, “China’s manufacturing sector rebounded in June, showing signs of growth for the first time this year, according to a purchasing managers’ index (PMI) released on Monday. The preliminary reading of the P.M.I. survey for June, compiled by Markit and published by HSBC, rose to 50.8 points, up from a reading of 49.4 in May and notably higher than the 49.7 that economists had forecast.”

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Chinese officials hope the latest data signals that the country is on track to hit its projected and highly anticipated 7.4 percent 2014 growth target. Current hurdles, such as unemployment rates, are still a worry. However, leaders are confident the PMI reflects an economic upturn.

“Higher monthly results for two measures of manufacturing activity announced Tuesday come on the heels of improvements in exports, industrial production and retail-sales data in recent weeks. Some economists said the slew of more positive data suggests that Beijing has managed to put a floor under sliding growth, at least for now,” The Wall Street Journal reports.

Gross domestic product data will become available July 16 – the numbers could suggest whether China is on schedule to meet its year-end goal. Much of the country’s current recovery plan is contingent on infrastructure investments and former loans.

Officials have not yet offered up an official stimulus package.

Bloomberg notes, “Analysts raised economic forecasts after China’s leaders intensified pro-growth efforts in late May, almost two months after outlining what some analysts dubbed a mini-stimulus. The economy is projected to grow 7.4 percent this year, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey last month, up from a 7.3 percent forecast in May.”

Despite the latest news, some economists claim India is still paced to exceed China in its manufacturing and services industries. India’s index is up two points from May at 52.3. [/show_to]

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